Chasing the Lunch Crowd
Key Takeaways:
Lunch sales on third-party delivery platforms remain strong even as workers return to the office. Lunch sales in January and February 2022 were higher than January and February 2021 sales suggesting that lunch-goers have not reverted back to their pre-pandemic lunch habits of ordering or dining in-person.
Houston and Los Angeles are noteworthy cities for lunch daypart share. Lunch sales for both cities comprise 18.2% of sales, compared to New York where only 14.9% of sales are for lunch. Los Angeles Lunch sales grew 4 percentage points from January 2020 to February 2022.
Cities come alive at lunchtime. Like clockwork, people pour out from their office buildings and into the streets searching for a bite to eat. This regular metropolitan cadence screeched to halt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, as more and more cities and employers “return to normal”, players in the food industry may wonder where the lunch crowd will be headed next. Will people continue to rely on delivery platforms as they did during the pandemic? Or will customers return to their pre-pandemic lunch habits of either dining in or picking up their lunch themselves?
Analysis of YipitData’s proprietary datasets suggests that the delivery platform lunch crowd is here to stay… for now. So far this year lunch sales on delivery platforms are performing stronger than last year. For example, January 2022 lunch sales were three times higher than pre-pandemic lunch sales in January 2020 and about 10% higher than January 2021 lunch sales. Furthermore, lunch sales became a larger share of overall sales on third-party platforms. In January 2020, lunch only consisted of 16.2% of delivery platform sales but in January 2022 made up 17.9% of sales. More and more, lunch customers are relying on delivery platforms to order their lunch, despite office reopenings and the lifting of Covid-19 related restrictions.
Daypart Share on 3P Platforms
United States, January 2020 - February 2022
*the pp values are the difference between Jan 2020 and Feb 2022
Although the lunch crowd seems to be sticking around on third-party delivery platforms, is that trend consistent for all metropolitan cities? When calculating daypart share by city, Houston and Los Angeles emerged as particularly strong lunch markets. Fairly consistently, Houston had the largest percentage of lunch sales compared to any other metro area from January 2020 to present. Second to Houston, Los Angeles had 18.2% of its February 2022 sales come from lunch alone, a significant increase from February 2020 when only 14.0% of sales were from lunch.
Lunch Sales as Daypart Share by Metro
United States, January 2020 - February 2022
So who are some of the restaurant winners that are claiming a large portion of the lunch money in these cities? For both Los Angeles and Houston, Chick-fil-A, McDonald’s and Chipotle rounded out the top three, collectively claiming about 10% of all lunch sales in each city during January and February 2022. However, outside the top 3, regional variance arises with Jason’s Deli, Wingstop and Taco Bell ranking at 4,5 and 6, respectively, for Houston and Starbucks, Jersey Mike’s and El Pollo Loco claiming those same rankings in Los Angeles.
As the lunch landscape continues to shift and evolve, YipitData research insights can provide clarity for restaurant leaders on lunch trends, such as pick up vs delivery, customer loyalty, new customer acquisition and more.
Share of Lunch Sales, Top Lunch Restaurants
Los Angeles Metro Area, January - February 2022
Share of Lunch Sales, Top Lunch Restaurants
Houston Metro Area, January - February 2022
For more insights on food and delivery, visit yipitdata.com to connect with our team of analysts. YipitData is the premier provider of alternative data to investment funds and corporations.
